← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 53% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.87 | fair |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 22% | 17% | 4.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waasland-Beveren | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.05 | 1667.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.77 | -7.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 21.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |