← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 41% | 31% | 2.40 | fair |
| Germinal win | 31% | 42% | 3.18 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Germinal | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 966.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1468.66 | 1534.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.52 | -13.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.15 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |