← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 42% | 35% | 2.33 | fair |
| Germinal win | 31% | 36% | 3.13 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.59 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.89 | 1478.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.12 | -9.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |