← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 69% | 73% | 1.41 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.13 | fair |
| Lierse win | 12% | 9% | 8.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 467.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1681.67 | 1460.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.19 | -32.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.89 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |