← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 42% | 37% | 2.33 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 33% | 40% | 2.99 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 519.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1549.47 | 1617.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.89 | -55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |