← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen win | 36% | 38% | 2.70 | fair |
| Lierse win | 34% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Bergen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.19 | 1525.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.75 | 25.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |