← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 66% | 65% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.96 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 14% | 17% | 6.80 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 453.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1674.75 | 1544.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.68 | -0.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |