← Jupiler Pro League 2012-13 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 66% | 61% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.62 | value: +7% |
| Germinal win | 13% | 16% | 7.40 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Germinal | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.76 | 1832.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.28 | -0.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 17.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.13 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |