← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Wed, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 41% | 60% | 2.25 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| St Truiden win | 32% | 18% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1471.39 | 1424.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.58 | 23.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.66 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |