← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Wed, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen win | 50% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1467.42 | 1460.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | -27.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |