← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 42% | 54% | 2.25 | value: +21% |
| Lierse win | 30% | 21% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1481.01 | 1492.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.24 | 26.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 25.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |