← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 37% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +5% |
| Mechelen win | 35% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 672.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1585.62 | 1705.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.43 | -7.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 37.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.85 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |