← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen win | 43% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
| Germinal win | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.56 | 1539.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.70 | -1.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.30 |
| state index | -1.23 | -0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |