← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 74% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
| St Truiden win | 8% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1365.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1655.16 | 1397.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.15 | -31.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 0.54 |
| state index | 0.49 | -1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |