← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 42% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +12% |
| Club Brugge win | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 180.00 | 1792.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1665.76 | 1685.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.59 | 45.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| league points | 40.00 | 95.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.86 |
| state index | 0.61 | 1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |