← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 83% | 77% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 17% | 8.50 | value: +41% |
| Westerlo win | 5% | 6% | 17.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Anderlecht | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2424.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1845.60 | 1469.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.08 | -29.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 56.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 0.68 |
| state index | 1.74 | -0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |