← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 47% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 25% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1487.36 | 1476.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.45 | -26.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |