← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germinal win | 58% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| St Truiden win | 17% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Germinal | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1535.57 | 1401.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.90 | -27.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.54 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |