← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 45% | 58% | 2.10 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Mechelen win | 27% | 18% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1777.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1639.83 | 1571.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.78 | 27.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 80.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |