← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 66% | 58% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +6% |
| Germinal win | 11% | 17% | 8.50 | value: +45% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1771.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1628.30 | 1547.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.80 | 2.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 77.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |