← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 54% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +11% |
| Westerlo win | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waregem | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 65.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1525.65 | 1498.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.79 | -11.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.74 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |