← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 59% | 51% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 17% | 26% | 6.00 | value: +54% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1482.31 | 1717.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.72 | -21.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.87 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |