← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 47% | 36% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Bergen win | 26% | 39% | 3.60 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1764.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1473.27 | 1622.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.66 | -33.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |