← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 71% | 80% | 1.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
| St Truiden win | 11% | 6% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1712.87 | 1412.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.38 | -9.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.59 |
| state index | 0.51 | -1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |