← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 69% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 11% | 11% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 151.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1672.78 | 1490.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.37 | 10.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 34.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |