← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Wed, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 37% | 51% | 2.50 | value: +27% |
| Lierse win | 34% | 21% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1760.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1463.51 | 1625.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.61 | -23.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 20.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |