← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 51% | 39% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +8% |
| Westerlo win | 23% | 31% | 4.20 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1498.68 | 1659.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.69 | -6.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 13.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.70 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |