← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 64% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
| Mechelen win | 13% | 16% | 7.50 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1756.00 | 630.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1647.74 | 1555.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.46 | 22.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 67.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |