← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen win | 58% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 18% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1478.32 | 1502.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.97 | 31.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |