← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 65% | 58% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +6% |
| Germinal win | 12% | 17% | 8.00 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1322.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1648.09 | 1540.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | 5.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |