← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokeren win | 39% | 32% | 2.50 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 33% | 42% | 2.88 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Lokeren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 623.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1503.01 | 1562.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.57 | -2.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |