← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 55% | 52% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 19% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 604.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1546.49 | 1500.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.68 | 7.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.06 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |