← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 73% | 71% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 9% | 11% | 12.00 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 178.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1738.78 | 1510.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.53 | 2.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.72 |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |