← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 40% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 32% | 38% | 2.90 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.01 | 1519.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.67 | -3.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |