← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 68% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
| Germinal win | 11% | 13% | 9.00 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Germinal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 162.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1744.61 | 1543.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.75 | 12.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.31 |
| state index | 1.49 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |