← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 66% | 76% | 1.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
| Lierse win | 12% | 7% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 102.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1665.36 | 1438.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.51 | 1.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |