← Jupiler Pro League 2011-12 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen win | 43% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
| Club Brugge win | 29% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bergen | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1480.08 | 1674.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.92 | -15.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.83 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |