← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokeren win | 59% | 67% | 1.62 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.80 | fair |
| Lierse win | 16% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lokeren | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 315.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1561.21 | 1428.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.56 | 14.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.79 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |