← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germinal win | 39% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Mechelen win | 32% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Germinal | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1495.33 | 1582.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.61 | -21.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.57 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |