← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 52% | 68% | 1.80 | value: +23% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
| Genk win | 21% | 12% | 4.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Anderlecht | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2072.00 | 458.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1839.24 | 1715.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.37 | 31.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| state index | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |