← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 57% | 75% | 1.62 | value: +22% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.75 | fair |
| Lierse win | 18% | 9% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waregem | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 141.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1588.59 | 1423.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.49 | 12.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.77 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |