← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Fri, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 72% | 84% | 1.30 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 19% | 10% | 5.00 | fair |
| Lierse win | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Lierse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 218.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1684.63 | 1413.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.79 | 19.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 43.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 0.70 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |