← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lierse win | 49% | 36% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Charleroi win | 24% | 35% | 4.00 | value: +42% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1405.53 | 1397.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.37 | -13.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| league points | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| state index | -0.67 | -1.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |