← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germinal win | 36% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
| Waregem win | 36% | 39% | 2.63 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Germinal | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| elo | 1485.19 | 1641.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.20 | 22.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 16.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 23.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |