← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 45% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
| Charleroi win | 28% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1394.16 | 1568.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.88 | -8.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| league points | 7.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.35 | 1.61 |
| state index | -1.76 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |