← Jupiler Pro League 2010-11 · Sat, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 59% | 66% | 1.57 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Lierse win | 17% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lierse | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1394.20 | 1685.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.59 | 23.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 9.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.21 |
| state index | -1.54 | 1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |