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🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Standard 4–0 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2008-09 Β· Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win64%1.44
Draw24%3.75
Club Brugge win12%7.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardClub Brugge
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days273.00700.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.006.00
elo1781.481609.23
elo momentum (last 5)7.85-16.37
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
league points49.0076.00
league rank3.001.00
matches since blank9.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.001.00
season ppg2.131.69
state index1.520.02
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20