⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Dender 4–0 Tubize

← Jupiler Pro League 2008-09 Β· Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dender win48%1.90
Draw28%3.30
Tubize win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricDenderTubize
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1419.021423.54
elo momentum (last 5)-10.70-38.70
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
league points18.0018.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.0011.00
matches since win3.004.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.780.78
state index-0.85-1.54
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.20