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Bergen 3–0 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2007-08 Β· Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bergen win44%2.10
Draw29%3.25
Waregem win28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBergenWaregem
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach daysβ€”2449.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1475.431517.51
elo momentum (last 5)28.3332.88
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
league points22.0035.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.881.40
state index0.140.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40