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FC Brussels 2–0 Lokeren

← Jupiler Pro League 2007-08 Β· Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lokeren win39%2.30
FC Brussels win33%2.80
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC BrusselsLokeren
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach daysβ€”251.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1400.871475.79
elo momentum (last 5)-15.89-16.34
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
league points13.0027.00
league rank17.0012.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet16.000.00
matches since win11.0014.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.541.13
state index-1.40-1.05
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.80